How much longer will smog stay in business?

classic Classic list List threaded Threaded
18 messages Options
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

How much longer will smog stay in business?

StarTech
Thinking of future career things.. How much longer do you guys think smog will last?
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

BasicTech678
StarTech wrote
Thinking of future career things.. How much longer do you guys think smog will last?
minimum 30-50 years, way beyond our time. until cars fly lol
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

smwalker
In reply to this post by StarTech
I think once the proliferation of self driving cars comes in two things will happen that will effect our business.

One Car ownership will drop.  With the Uber/Lyfts probly getting down to $0.30 cents a mile car ownership will become a luxury.  Even more with less people owning cars and the risk of not having a self driving car insurance rates will double/triple pricing many people out of the car ownership market.  I can see that happening by 2025 in CA.

Then your saying well self driving cars will still need to get smogged right?  Well yes and no.  Since every self driving car will have an uplink to some kind of positioning satellite they can report thier emissions as they go.  When a check engine light comes on the next time they are without passengers they drive themselves to a repair facility.  If an owner refuses to do that in 10 miles they go into a limp mode not going over 25 MPH.  That will get people repairing thier cars!  

That is if there are even any ICE left when all this happens.  Maybe some Hybrids to work on till 2040.

But a smog check?  I think by 2030 the number of smog checks that will need to be done will be handled by the ref stations.  That will just be basically rich people who can afford sky high insurance who have a phobia about not being in control of their vehicle.  And BTW they will be the ones that will run into you when you are reading a book in your self driving car.




Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

BasicTech678
uber and lyft drivers travel to areas with heavy population, around events ,concerts, sports ect. its cost me 10.30 to drive 2 min from stevens creek honda to west field valley fair mall. instead of going down it will go up if car ownership goes down. most house holds own more than 3 cars, unless you live in sf or la area then you take advantage of public transportation. i doubt anyone with a yearly income of 75k plus is using public transportation.   even if the smog program goes down in 30 years, we will be well paid lube and tire guys. even flying cars will have emissions, electric flying cars will still have sensors and computers to replace or re flash, diagnose ect.

tesla the most exotic of electric cars , self driving cars still have accidents ending in death, yes owners are ignoring the commands but end of the day the car is at fault.  few more deaths or until lawmakers son/daughter is injured then they will place limits on where you can enable self driving features.

 i highly doubt self driving cars will take over, with peoples paranoia of being tracked. better chance of all vehicles going electric before self driven takes over.  even now tesla is considering charging to use their "super charge stations" which they didnt before, this will cause some people to turn away from tesla.  
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

Best Answer I Can Give
In reply to this post by StarTech
 StarTech, now why would you want to change?

 I put a thing down and got pounded for it. GEE work for someone make @15 to @25 an hour. No Bennys, No PAID vacation. No retirement. No Medical. Work your ass off and worry that every car may be your last.

 Let's see County of Ventura. Work on Fire trucks. With Certs @$90 K a year. City of LA @ $ 80 a year.
just had the school district guy in over $50 a year.

 People gave me shit. I gave you CHOICES. You have a license.You can take and pass a TEST.

                            YOU DON' HAVE TO DO THIS AND BE UNHAPPY. YOU HAVE CHOICES!

 We all have the SAME 24 hour a day. How much you choose to make by the minute is up to you.
tired, and just not the tired that sleep can fix.
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

StarTech
well, I have a shop here and I was thinking of moving to the LA area, and maybe work at a shop after selling this one. I'm wondering how long the smog business will last to see if i should sell the shop or to judge how long i should keep it.
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

none
In reply to this post by StarTech
I think with the changes BAR is making to the OIS test I could see California going to "kiosk" type tests within ten years or so. The "law of diminishing returns" will make it not worth the cost of running the program like it is to catch such a small percentage of fails that wouldn't be caught by the vehicles computer.

At that point it won't be worth running a business that is just a smog station alone I would think.  
People are usually shocked when they find out I'm not a very good electrician.
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

Smogtech
In reply to this post by StarTech
soon when all the car sell from the dealership with atleast 55 mpg ..    
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

none
Smogtech wrote
soon when all the car sell from the dealership with atleast 55 mpg ..
But we aren't checking how well they run. We are checking how CLEAN they run. Look at the VW TDI, the fuel mileage and power were great but the emissions were higher than allowable.
People are usually shocked when they find out I'm not a very good electrician.
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

Best Answer I Can Give
In reply to this post by Smogtech
 Your BIG question is, CAN YOU WORK FOR A ASSHOLE?
Are you willing to keep your mouth SHUT.
Are you willing to be the GO TO guy. Hell, he know hows to run a shop, what the hell am I doing hear? Owner takes off.

 Are you willing to do that?
tired, and just not the tired that sleep can fix.
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

323818
In reply to this post by StarTech
I think None is right, that's why I got out of doing smog checks and went to work for the city as a tech.
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

Smogtech
In reply to this post by none
"too big to fail"

U.S. Cars Must Get 55 MPG By 2025 Under New Rules      








law cant you phone or texting.  The the too big to fail cars with huge as screen
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

none
My point was that MPG has nothing to do with it.

My Kawasaki KLR650 gets 55 mpg and has over 1.0% CO. My 1978 Rabbit diesel got 55 mpg but the NOx was really high I'm sure.
People are usually shocked when they find out I'm not a very good electrician.
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

Best Answer I Can Give
 What is the point? The point where there is no more. Some IDIOT lady that makes laws saw her car say 29 MPG as it was going down hill. So all vehicles should get 29 MPG.
My Dodge going downhill will say 99.9 MPH.

Two points. One you cannot be at Point A and Point B at the same time. There is a POINT where shit cannot be done. No matter how Fast a Double A fuel car is, it cannot be at the start and finish line at the same time. There has to be a point where it will not happen.
Second Point? Idiot people who have no idea are making rules and laws on false info.

 At some point you are going to need fuel to make it go down the road, AND BE CLEAN.
tired, and just not the tired that sleep can fix.
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

Smogtech
In reply to this post by none
yes none.  my points to our biz future. Every car manufacture was going along with the mandates.  Pushing for electric vehicles.   If no body stop this, it will happening sooner.  
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

Best Answer I Can Give
 Thanks. We don't need fuel to make it go down the road.

 FOLLOW THE MONEY. It will surprise you who wants the electric cars.
tired, and just not the tired that sleep can fix.
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

Smogtech
I see bike lanes everywhere in S Ca.  
Reply | Threaded
Open this post in threaded view
|

Re: How much longer will smog stay in business?

smwalker
In reply to this post by BasicTech678
BasicTech678 wrote
 i highly doubt self driving cars will take over, with peoples paranoia of being tracked.
Just like no one allow their conversations to be listened in on right?

The total number of Americans using voice-activated assistant devices will reach 35.6 million this year, up a whopping 129% jump year-over-year,

And Surely Americans would not want their viewing history tracked online by anyone so Blockbuster will be around forever.

About 54% of U.S. adults said they have Netflix in their household — while 53% have a DVR


If only 10% of people opt out of car ownership many sectors will fail.

And sure repair will still be around but you better be prepared to take the rate Uber/Lyft/Google is offering other wise the cars will drive south of the border for maintenance.